New toys are always exciting but they can seriously skew our mindset when making investment choices. Envisioning all of those zeros your bank account can hold. This can seriously crowd out logical thought. But SafeMoon is an exciting and potentially lucrative risk. Let’s look at the numbers.
I’ve written here this week about 100x investment one SafeMoon holder took on the coin and also on expectation setting for the cryptocurrency itself but here’s a good gut check you can use on ANY alt-coin coming of age.
One way to think about the potential opportunity (and limits) of SafeMoon is to ask aloud:
- “How many holders would reach $1 million accounts?”
- Then do a gut check: Does that sound reasonable?
SafeMoon is currently looking to shed a zero in it’s decimal race to the top (current price as of this writing is: $0.00000085. Let’s envision what would happen if the price went x50 or higher. I only have data from the first 100K accounts on SafeMoon but taking those accounts as is…
If SafeMoon hit $0.00005 then:
- 1700 accounts would be valued above $1M
- 15K accounts would see a value between $100K and $999K.
That actually seems reasonable! By the way, that is my price prediction in the near future. It will be a pleasant but patience-trying ride to that number but within a year I predict it could get there! (Full disclosure: I own SafeMoon but I am NOT paid by them and I only do this for fun. I’m not a financial advisor.)
If SafeMoon hit one cent ($0.01) it would create:
- 5 accounts worth over $100 billion
- 300 accounts over $1 billion
- 30K accounts over $10 million
- 60K accounts over $1 million
As much as I love the SafeMoon community and cryptocurrency… I don’t think the universe has that in store for us. :)
BUT the FIRST SCENARIO is totally doable!
You might rightly ask… well, what about DogeCoin?! Here’s a meme token knocking at one quarter.
I think SafeMoon’s current momentum and hitting the market is very positive! However… it’s simply a framework of supply and demand.
- There are ~100 billion Doge coin in circulation — the price is currently ~$0.10
- There are 600 trillion SafeMoon coins in circulation — the price is ~0.000001
- There are 6000x more SafeMoon coins.
- The price is 10,000x LOWER than Doge Coin
If you move the current price of Doge coin 4 or 5 places to the right to match the current SafeMoon supply you get roughly where we are now.
To get to $0.01, Safemoon would have to move the decimal 5 to 6 places to the left.
Likewise, the supply of SafeMoon would have to move in the opposite direction. BUT to get to $0.01 SafeMoon would been to trim coins down to 60 billion. That will likely never happen. The best case scenario (with the current contract) is probably between 5 and 10 trillion within 2 years which puts the price between $0.00005 and $0.0001.
“Burning” tokens is an amazing feature of SafeMoon but you can’t really cheat the economics of it. Still, even a 4-zero price point is an amazing return on investment on just $700:
$0.0000007 = $700
$0.000001 = $1000
$0.000005 = $5,000
$0.00001 = $10,000
$0.00005 = $50,000
$0.0001 = $100,000
$0.0005 = $500,000
$0.001 = $1,000,000
$0.005 = $5,000,000
$0.01 = $10,000,000
Note that I am NOT a financial advisor but I thoroughly enjoy doing this analysis.